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Published today in:

01 October 2009
By Michael Yon
The Greatest Afghanistan War has deteriorated so noticeably that one can now feel the enemy's growing pulse. Each month it beats steadier, stronger, and in 2010 it will finally be born.
On Sept. 11 in Kandahar, a South African civilian working without security was visibly upset - not at the Taliban but at the police. The 16-year police veteran recounted seeing Afghan police speeding through crowded streets and hitting a bicycle. The rider gymnastically avoided impact while the bicycle was tossed down the road.
The South African, with whom I spent a week in Helmand and Kandahar provinces, said the police never slowed down. "That's part of the reason the Taliban are gaining ground," he said. "The police are out there recruiting Taliban."
I have searched for answers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Along with the more strategic questions (for example, should war be pursued?) are those closer to the shop floor: Are we gaining or losing popular support? Is the enemy gaining or losing strength? Is the coalition gaining or losing strength?
The first answer is a common denominator for the rest.
We are losing popular support. Confidence in the Afghan and coalition governments is plummeting. Loss of human terrain is evident. Conditions are building for an avalanche. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the military commander in Afghanistan, and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates are aware of the rumbling, and so today we are bound by rules of engagement that appear insensible.
We must curb civilian losses at expense to ourselves. I believe the reasoning is sound and will share those increased dangers. Erosion of popular support seems reversible. There still is considerable good will from the Afghan population, but bomb by bomb we can blow it. We have breathing room if we work with wise alacrity. I sense a favorable shift in our operations occurring under Gen. McChrystal.
Enemies are strengthening. Attacks are dramatically increasing in frequency and efficacy. We are being out-governed by tribes and historical social structures. These structures are - and will be for the foreseeable future - the most powerful influence upon and within the political terrain. "Democracy" does not grow on land where most people don't vote. The most remarkable item I saw during the Aug. 20 elections was the machine-gun ambush we walked into.
The coalition is weakening. While the U.S. has gotten serious, the organism called NATO is a jellyfish for which the United States is both sea and prevailing wind. The disappointing effort from many partners is best exemplified by the partners who are pushing hardest: The British are fine examples.
The British landed in Helmand province after someone apparently vouched that Helmand would be safe, and they believed it. Helmand is today the most dangerous province in Afghanistan.
British combat tours are arduous and the troops suffer in countless ways. The soldiers sweat and freeze in the desert filth; British rations are terrible; mail can be weeks late; and they fight constantly. Troops endure high casualties yet they keep fighting. These things are true. Some say the British "lost Helmand," but this is not true. Helmand was a mess before they arrived. British soldiers are strong but their government is pitiful, leading to an average effort in Afghanistan.
Example: The British serve six-month tours, minus two weeks' leave. Travel is not deducted from leave. Troops are so few at Forward Operating Base Inkerman that missions are planned around leave schedules. For leave, a soldier at Inkerman must helicopter to Camp Bastion (the main British military base in Afghanistan) to jet home.
Helicopters are scarce, making flight schedules erratic. As leave approaches, soldiers stop doing missions and wait for a helicopter. The waiting can last a week or more. Then they get home, take two weeks' leave, then transport back to Bastion, where the soldier waits to helicopter back to Inkerman.
When I departed Bastion last month, some soldiers waited three weeks to helicopter back to Inkerman, and were still waiting. That's six to seven lost weeks for a soldier on a six-month tour. After other distractions, British soldiers might net three months of focused work. There is zero time to conduct counterinsurgency, and besides, the British military, despite its war-fighting ability, is not good at counterinsurgency. Without change, London likely will be defeated in Helmand within roughly two years, which brings us to the fall of 2011.
Germans had deployed to one of the safest areas in Afghanistan yet today they are staggered by Taliban punches. Berlin is brittle and apt to quit. Smart money says the Germans crumble from any significant role by 2011.
Canadians will quit in 2011. Canadian soldiers have earned respect, but their NATO-partner government has empowered our enemies by quitting at a crucial moment. This likely will be remembered consciously and subconsciously in future dealings with Ottawa.
Other fine partners, such as the Dutch, who have fought well, plan to downsize right when we need them most. The Dutch need to stay in this fight and increase their efforts. We need them.
The key partner in redirecting Afghanistan should be the Afghan government. Yet Afghan President Hamid Karzai's corrupt narcocracy is widely disrespected by Afghans and increasingly combative with the coalition. We are pouring support into a government that we don't want, and many Afghans resent.
On Aug. 26, I was in Helmand with the British when a bomb exploded in Kandahar, killing at least 41 people and blowing out windows in the room I later rented to write this account. There were bombs and attacks on a daily basis in Kandahar but I only watch from the roof as Afghans kill Afghans. Potential for civil war is great.
In this unprecedented moment, dozens of the world's most notable nations have focused on helping one land, yet Western sympathies for Afghanistan already have peaked.
While an Afghan avalanche is poised, our thoughts are growing cold. This is it. Either we will begin to show progress by the end of 2010 or, piece by piece, the coalition will cleave off and drift away, meaning 2011 will begin the end to significant involvement in Afghanistan.
The War in Afghanistan has truly begun. This will be a long, difficult fight that is set to eclipse anything we’ve seen in Iraq. As 2010 unfolds, my 6th year of war coverage will unfold with it. There is relatively little interest in Afghanistan by comparison to previous interest in Iraq, and so reader interest is low. Afghanistan is serious, very deadly business. Like Iraq, however, it gets pushed around as a political brawling pit while the people fighting the war are mostly forgotten. The arguments at home seem more likely to revolve around a few words from the President than the ground realities of combat here. I can bring the ground realities, but can sustain the coverage only by the graciousness of readers. Please keep that in mind. Please click…
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Pithy, Pointed and Erudite
Strykers
Yet all the great powers can be assembled to criticize Israeli construction in its Biblical heartland
British Help...
I truly hope someone in the MoD in London takes note of your comments on the British part of this operation...our soldiers are, as you say, being battered in Helmand and yet our government of spin & lies would have us believe that we're "winning the war" against the Taliban. Keep up the excellent work, you are a voice of reason & truth amongst the lies & spin that we here in Britain are being subjected to by our crippled & corrupt government.
Afghanistan
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Just a question for Michael Yon: The British effort is obviously vastly under-resourced in Helmand. When you say that the British military is 'not good at counter-insurgency', do you mean that if adequate troop numbers and kit were in theatre they would still be struggling? How much of Brit counter-insurgency strategy can be judged given the tight resources issue?
FU Afghanistan
prophecy
tell us what will happen after we leave Afghan. I have zippo confidence that this administration will support the effort. Clinton et al pulled us out of Somalia in 93, and it has been a mess since.
Former USMC
difficult. Inspite of your 'following audience', you are, in the end, media. I do not trust the media. "Fear not your enemy for he can only kill you. Far better you fear the media for they will steal your honor."
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Media
Your logic and reductionism is sad.
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You predicted the same civil war in Iraq if our country didn't do something quickly and then came the "surge" and VICTORY. While acknowledging that Iraq had many more assets than Afghanistan -- like oil and literacy; do you think a SURGE in Afghanistan would lead to victory ? If the U.S. and British governments listened to you about backing their forces, could we win against the Taliban ? I am acquainted with Special Forces who've been there fighting, and they believe it can be done, if Afghan forces are adequately trained and equipped.
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Far better you fear the media ????
Mick former USMC Did you just call Michael Yon the Media?
I haven’t missed a dispatch since Gates of fire, now that was a good read!
Yes Mike has a fallowing but not like the sheep that fallow Rush I’m here for the facts as only a man on the seen can provide. I also respect Mikes take on a given issue his background makes him qualified to add his two cents. In moment of truth he explains how he got involved in these wars; remember the contractors killed and hung from a bridge in Iraq, one was a friend of mikes the real story was not getting home.
Mick may be you should crawl back in your bunker.
Rules Engagement
Use objective measures: Michael has been very close to being dead on in previous "opinions"
That said, Michael has the experience and maturity to make good "gut" calls. Does he always get it right? Probably not. However, like McChrystal, he's been in the fights, boots on ground, and sweated with his fellow soldier. So if Michael says his gut instinct goes one way, and Gen Mc Chrystal has exceptionally similar comments, then you'd be a fool to dismiss it as "soft, mass media, etc." Just as you don't get 4 stars easily, Michael has built his following with great, and exceptionally accurate accounts of war efforts. Whether I was junior enlisted, or later a junior officer, I knew to listen to Senior NCOs because even if I didn't agree, even if they were disrespectful and abusive, they were passing along words wrought with experience.
I'd have been a fool to not listen.
Tribes & Democracy
Thank you.
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Media
Why we fight
Having read your dispatches and just finished "The Places In Between" by Rory Stewart, I am beginning to see that the U.S. and international community's goals of democracy and nation building are incongruous with the cultural values of the people of Afghanistan. Human rights, international diplomacy, gender equality, education, these things mean nothing to the psychologically and geographically isolated peoples of this region. How can you win hearts and minds when those that you are trying to win over do not want or even understand what you have to offer? How do 21st century nations convert a "nation" that last peaked in the 14th century and has known only ruin, warfare and regionalism for the last 500 years? The answer is: they can't.
The only reason to be in Afghanistan is to capture and kill Osama Bin Laden or al-Zawahiri and I doubt they are there now. Had we prosecuted this war hard, early and consistently instead of focusing our military capital elsewhere, we might have had a chance.
Best of luck and keep reporting while you can.
Been there, done that
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Yes, but this will take much longer than it did in Iraq because most Afghans are illiterate, not being able to read instructions or even a map. Plus there is little loyalty to any government, other than local tribes.
Hopefully, Michael's loyal following will pony up enough money to keep him on the point, so we'll all know what's really going on.
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ROE
It is still mind boggling to me how our Soldiers can be efficiently trained to fight in a very short amount of time and excel, and yet, the troops in foreign lands take years if ever.
Trackbacked / Linked
--> Former USMC Mick
Your quote:
" I do not trust the media. 'Fear not your enemy for he can only kill you. Far better you fear the media for they will steal your honor.' "
Why do I think you just look for places to toss in that quote? It takes no intelligence to "steal" a quote, unless it has some relevance. But here I see none, and you present none.
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I have scoured your arcticle for a faint tip of the cap to the efforts the Canadian Armed forces, have made in Afghanistan since weeks after 911. How quaint of you to give us two sentances.
My countrymen in Afghanistan, have been dying at 6 times the rate of yours in Iraq, for many years while the bulk of the ground war in Afghanistan was ground by Canadians and British.
It amazes me how you can just brush over the contributions of some Nato member nations in Afghanistan because they did not join the Iraq war.
Here is a suggestion, wean yourself from the brits and ask for a imbed with the Canadian's it might just broaden your horizons.
Mr
The British Army is being starved of resources and its moral destroyed, by our unelected and dysfunctional prime minister.
Prime Minister (unelected) Brown, for the sake of our country and our brave allies, give us a chance to elect some real leaders NOW.....
Mr Yon, you are a beacon of truth in a sea of propaganda.
Tip of the cap?
Perhaps if you'd been paying attention, you'd have noticed the repeated and consistent "Tips o' the Cap"...to Canadians, Brits, Poles, Danes, Lithuanians...nearly every professional soldier on the ground, in theater, that Michael has come across over the last few years.
Perhaps you should excoriate your own Government for its limp enthusiasm in prosecuting its commitments. The best tool (professional soldier) suffers much wear and tear - damage to itself and the piece to which it's applied (Afganistan) - when wielded by a poor operator (politicians). Don't think I don't have scorn for our own politicians (they're the real tools), but I'm also not the one lobbing myself at the independent observer....(Mr. Yon, if you haven't followed the analogies to this point).
Michael, I pray the public wakes to the situation, possibilities, and necessities. The politicians read the wind, and if the wind wispers "commit 'till the jobs done right" the poiticians will sing that tune, also.
Scott Klimczak
Woodstock, IL
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I know you need money and I have helped out when I can. It is distressing to always see that you are going to have to quit reporting cause you have no money.
Is there no one out there in the media who will buy your writing for them on a weekly basis so you can have some income?
IF they accept what you write with no changes that does not hurt your independence.
You are appreciated
Misunderstood Media Comment
Back in the olden days, RVN, we got scalped and ambushed by the likes of Dan Rather, Wally Crankcase and that ilk on a regular basis. Jerks would show up suck up and be "one of the guys" and rat you out on the evening news in a heartbeat.
Show some compassion for the Marine. We all know they are not that smart but fight well and have big hearts.
Michael keep reporting the facts and stay safe.
Yes, I do send money on a regular basis and also spend money taking care of the troops. How many of you tightwads do the same?
Embeding with Marines
Mother of a US Marine in Afghanistan , October 01, 2009 "
Mam, I don't know how much you have read of the recent articles, but he has tried to repeatedly to embed with our troops recently. Furthermore in Iraq, he was constantly embeded with our troops, marines included and has had nothing but good to say about them. Don't jump to conclusions too quickly. Michael has had wonderful things to say about our forces over there. However it is no slight to praise our allies in this fight. They have some of their best kids over there fighting too. Read some of the old articles please, I think you will see what I mean. I know there are quite a few of them by now. God bless your child, I hope he has a safe return.
Thank you.
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Counterinsurgency
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just FYI, the US did not lose militarily in Vietnam. When the US left in 1972 the Vietcong and the NVA were devastated, particularly after their disastrous tet offensive. The South was ultimately conquered because a very leftwing, democrat controlled congress refused to fund their allies in the south, even as the USSR and China poured men and money into the north which had broken it treaties to end fighting, the result was the successful superpower backed invasion of South Vietnam in 1975.
A similar lack of commitment by the left of Americas political landscape, it seems, may condemn our (Britain, the US and the rest of the coalition) effort in Afghanistan to failure.
Also “shock and awe” preformed very well and contributed relatively smooth initial stages in the liberation of Iraq, i.e. the spectacular 3 week blitzkrieg to Baghdad (despite the lack of an entry through Turkey). Its is probable that an even heavier footprint would have been better because in the attempt to avoid unnecessary death in the Iraqi army the US probably let a lot of Baathist officers live who would later fuel the insurgency
Wimpy Canadian
Problem is, the mission is being mis-represented to the publ;ic, for a variety of (wrong headed) reasons. It will take a courageous politician in the West to spell out exactly what it is all about. Obambi won't.
and non NATO too
Oh does anyone mind me mentioning that Australia is not in NATO but have had troops in Afghanistan for about 8years? i think. We are "very lucky" having sustained "only a dozen" fatal casualties. Our Commitment might be larger but for reasonable commitments in Timor L, the Solomons and Iraq. I appreciate everyones efforts.
keep safe.
The classic mistake
Yes for "The clssic mistake" above
Wimpy Canadian2
Having said that I am a supporter of this mission (even though I am a "lefty". I believe it is important for us to be there and that would include our combat troops.
But if our country does decide to leave that will be our choice. But I must take exception with your last comment with regards to Canada--"This likely will be remembered consciously and subconsciously in future dealings with Ottawa." Are you saying that we have not spent enough "blood and treasure", that we would be punished if we decided to leave after all that we have done. In the end it does not matter much because Canada never does get the recognition that it deserves from the US anyways.
Lets remember why Afghanistan is in the mess it is in now. It is because the Great George Bush abandon it to fight an unjust war. Which also caused so much of the Western population to become negative on the Afghan mission.
Well, that is my 2 cents for what it's worth.
The Classic Mistake
Unfortunately there is little in the way of unconventional in the DoD and so the concepts of Foreign Internal Defence and low level armed diplomacy are not cultivated as appreciated skill sets.
Three years ago I wrote a white paper for PROCEEDINGS in which I suggested that the secret of winning in Afghanistan lay in focusing on 2 distinct centers of gravity; The first is foreign fighter entry denial. Essentially, in much the same fashion that we screwed up early in Iraq, the only way to get inside of the enemy's decision cycle and seize initiative is to deny their principal method of resupply. That means an absolute enforcement of border security to the point of lethal kinetics if people attempt to enter the country through routes other than those officially designated for entry.
The second center of gravity in Afghanistan is the community. As has been pointed out already if the populace feels secure they will vote for greater individual freedom. The only way that they feel secure is if they sense a persistent and robust committment from the US. There is no question that the typical Afghani will trust a US soldier far more than an Afghan. Make no mistake, the world knows that the majority of US troops are decent to civilians and have a high regard for life. But failing a clear understanding of committment for as long as it takes and seeing that committment played out on their TVs, the typical Afghani, like the typical Iraqi has no choice but to side with survival and that will mean remaining compliant with the thugs who will remain when US will falters.
PROCEEDINGS did not feel that this was cogent enough to publish.
Winning in Afghanistan is not complicated. It is simply a matter of a coherent and long term investment in protecting the civilian populace and that means a big presence among the Afghanis and a denial of access by the bad guys.
It will not be the Afghanis or Taliban that defeat us in the end. Rather it will be a corrupt US political cycle that fails to understand the basic elements of what any group of decent people want and a system that continues to support a technocracy at the expense of basic expertise in human relations. Until this is rectified we can continue to count on failures in our expeditionary efforts.
Has anyone taken a gander at Somalia lately?
MF8
Carl Norgueriga
Thank you for pointing out to me the earlier articles by Mchael, you'll have to excuse me this is my son's first tour and I pour over everything that I can that is written about what the Marines are doing now, because of course most of the time my son can't tell us where he is, What I should have said is that I wish I could find someone who covers some of the missions I know my son was involved in (after the fact )as well as Michael covers the places and military personell that he covers. Thank you for pointing out to me my mistake. I t's not that I don't pray for all the military, it's just that of course no one is covering what the US Marines are doing as well as Michael has been covering the British Forces. I Love all the forces from all countries. God Bless them all. May they all come home safe to their families that love them, and thank you for your well wishes for my son.
Mark Twain
http://www.neoperspectives.com/MarkTwain.htm
"Fear not your enemy for he can only kill you. Far better you fear the media for they will steal your honor."
A source disusing the inclination of the Euro mindset..
http://books.google.com/books?id=3BPFIgltKTcC& dq=what+beliefs+and+institutions+did+voltaire+criticize
+in+candide&printsec=frontcover&source=bn&hl=en&ei=ZXbHSqS_LZXU8Qawo5DiCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4#v=onepage&q=&f=false
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Thanks for the slap in the face
On Spot
What it takes to win
One of the strategic problems is this: who are our enemies and allies, not only in Afghanistan but in the Muslim world in general? If we define fundamentalist sharia law as an enemy, the conclusion is that we are training the army of our enemies against some other enemies, as they both support Sharia law. Another is the means we have and need to do what we choose to do. We more or less 'won' after we routed al-qaida and the Taliban. We could have left then, and used military force again only if more enemies arise (preemptively or not). We didn't, and so this 'war' has lasted longer than WWI and WWII combined.
Direct military force is our strength, and we should use it to our advantage. But long-term counter-insurgency means using troops and more than high-tech weapons, it means sustaining long-term casualties, and the having long-term political will to sustain the effort. Are the latter part of our strength or weakness?
If our goal is to create a modern free democracy, we haven't gone about it the right way: a stronger occupation, almost a soft colonization for a willing population, would have been necessary. That means creating a permanent presence and building permanent alliances. If it is done freely, it shouldn't be overly criticized, but we will need to use Machiavelli's principles more than the principles of multiculturalism. For example, one of Machiavelli's lessons is to understand how much force and damage must be done to obtain victory and peace, and apply it all at once. We haven't done that sufficiently against the Baathists in Iraq, or against the Taliban-supporting tribes in Afghanistan. Another lesson is to enforce peace and order brutally, especially against real criminals, as that will only gather you respect. Failure to do that will mean that you look weak, and lose the respect. Machiavelli teaches that in war it is better to be feared than loved, but one should avoid being despised. Another thing that Machiavelli advises is to defeat the strongest force, and rule using the second/third strongest forces as counter-weighs and you as the deciding factor, setting yourself as the arbiter. Have we done that?
Other things we should learn: do not be overly generous with the foreign leaders, as that will only corrupt them, as does the oil money with middle eastern societies. One of the problems with our 'development' models is that they are often based on more or less socialist philosophy of government development projects. The people of Afghanistan will support us if we develop them and improve their lives, but we seem to be helpless in this area, other than building a few roads and bridges. To improve their lives is to change the rules they live by. We know what the best 'development' model really is, and it is business and capitalism. Have we utilized it? Do we understand what causes and reduces corruption in a government? i.e. if a government official is not in a position of power, he will not demand a bribe. Have we demanded or at least politely asked our new allies to enforce economic freedom, property laws, etc? What about religious freedom, do our 'allies' in Afghanistan or the middle east even grudgingly accept it or not? If not, why are we training them? Would it not be more prudent to rely on our own forces for whatever needs to be done? What kind of government are we creating in Afghanistan?
Our long-term allies must share with us not only interests, but values, respect and trust. Do we trust the people we are training? Do they trust us? Have they proven worthy of our respect? Have we proven worthy of their respect, in the way we have behaved? And finally, how much money would it have taken to at least provide a gun to the head of each christian or animist family in southern Sudan, to stop the continuing genocide, compared to how much we are spending in Afghanistan?
To Jeff
"Micheal you spoil awesome work by saying us Brits are poor at counterinsurgency, where do you think your country learnt it from, perhaps if you had paid more attention to what we did in Borneo and Malaya, you would not have been defeated in Vietnam"
Drop the arogant BS my friend and stop comparing apples and oranges if you want your comments to be taken seriously. As one British soldier to another I concur that we are NOT perofrming counter insurgency well in Helmand, neither did we do so in Basra. As you rightly identitfy this is primarily due to a shocking lack of resources and tied in with that, the absence of any political understanding or will. However, our senior military leadership have NOT served us well and have been too releuctant to present the Government with strong critical analysis of what we can and cannot physically do with the tools and manpower at our disposal. Also where we have made mistakes at the strategic level it is all too often covered up with bluster and spin, unlike our American cousins who are somewhat more self-critical and able to acknowledge their own mistakes.
If you have served in Afghanistan (I assume you have as you comment with apparent authority) you would be the first man I've come across who expresses disdain for the Yankees, in the absence of our own resources US CAS has kept very many of us alive in difficult circumstances. A little humility goes a long way my friend.
Given the right tools and sufficient numbers we can and do perform at the level our closest alliy would historically expect us to, we CAN do counter insurgency very well indeed. Without them (as we are and will doubtless remain) we are on a slow boat to humiliation and Michael's analysis - painful as it is to admit - is entirely correct.
Here's a thought, stop buggering about in Afghanistan and come and 'liberate' a more civilised land where US soldiers are seen as brothers in arms, not mortal enemies.








