21 January 2012
This war is going to turn out badly. We are wasting lives and resources while the United States decays and other threats emerge. We led the horse to water.
Importantly, there is no value in pretending that Pakistan is an ally. We should wish the best of luck to the Afghans, and the many peaceful Pakistanis, and accelerate our withdrawal of our main battle force. The US never has been serious about Afghanistan. Under General Petraeus we were starting to gain ground, but the current trajectory will land us in the mud.
The enemies will never beat us in Afghanistan. Force on force, the Taliban are weak by comparison. Yet this is their home. There is only so much we can do at this extreme cost for the many good Afghan people. We must reduce our main effort and concentrate on other matters. Time to come home.
Sincerely,
Michael Yon
Comments
Keep up the good work brother
Semper Fi
Danny
Regardless of the bigger picture you will make a difference in the lives of all that you come into contact with in the line of duty. It has to start somewhere and starting with just one Afghan person that you are able to save will influence their life and hopefully the lives of those around them.
Thank you for your service! Be safe and know that there are many people praying for your safety and that of all of our soldiers serving today. Remember that these people have not lived with a true government and society as we know it, but lived in a world of tribes continually fighting amongst themselves. No foreign military has every been able to concur and take over Afghanistan as a whole throughout history let alone establish a democracy of the people. I believe that it is a foreign concept to them and not one they readily understand or even want.
Those countries we are in now (Pakistan and Afghanistan) sure want our monies but are unwilling to do what needs to be done to fight terrorism.
Hate to leave those native people who have helped/depended on us in a lurch, but their respective governments have not been of much help.
Dr. Rex T.
Dear David,
Actually we should have done the opposite in 2001/2002 when there was a short time span window to destroy both the Afghan-Taliban Leaderships (ie above all to kill Mullah Omar who had put on Mohammedan's cloak in Kabul in 2000 making him in the people's eyes Allah's viceroy in Afghanistan) and al-Qeada. Operation Anaconda was the most critical time period (read NOT A GOOD DAY TO DIE!). But Rumsfeld kept interfering, not releasing that on Ranger battalion stationed north of Afghanistan as asked for by the CIA and not allowing the 101st to bring its artillery. And as a result they escaped giving the Muslim World the impression that Allah was on their side. In counter insurgency if you hear "To little, to late." it is always a bad sign.
Also the American pubic needs to remember two sayings from Asia:
* "In war take the last step before taking the first step."
* "To kill is easy. To unkill is impossible."
Last the American people need to grow up when it comes to war. Bumper stickers and flags taped in windows are no enough. Anyone after 9/11 that tried to warn them and asked them to just look at a map and do some reading on Afghanistan and Muslims were condemned as defeatists and lacking in patriotism. And no war taxes I knew would come back to haunt us just as it did in the War of 1812.
Jack E. Hammond
Fighting on the ground by the Geneva Convention rulebook in Afgh/Pak is a sucker's game.
In our day we had Robert McNamara who micromanaged the war from DC. He later admitted his philosophy was all wrong.
So far Rumsfeld has had no such ephipany.
While it is true that the SecDef is a civilian and the military is under civilian authority they should LISTEN TO THE COMMANDERS on the ground. I hate to think of the numbers of us who have died while "big brains" in DC dithered over minutia of diplomacy. By then it's too f'ing late. War is the failure of diplomacy - so get out of the way and let us soldiers do our job!
Something definitely stinks and it isn't in Denmark...nor is it cheese...unless you want to consider the big cheese.
Thanks again Mike...and thanks to our great Military men.
Even a year ago you were a lot more positive and hopeful for our work in Afghanistan.
What changed your mind the most?
Sun Tzu
Michael - Thoughtful insight and I just feel for the young men and women who served selflessly.
I’ve enjoyed and respected your many postings from Iraq and Afghanistan as honest and insightful. But I feel your present message leaves much untold and I would like to hear your deeper thoughts; e.g.:
(1) You say: The war will “turn out badly”; General Petraeus started well, but the “current trajectory will land us in the mud”.
I ask you straight: IS THE BLAME HERE TO BE PLACED AT THE C-IN-C’S DOORMAT? SHOULD THE MILITARY TOP BRASS BE MORE ASSERTIVE IN VOICING (EVEN DEMANDING?)A WINNING POLICY? WHAT BLAME MUST THE SECDEF BEAR?
(2)You say: “best of luck to the Afghans, and the many peaceful Pakistanis”. I ask you straight, (and I believe the sincerity of your words of sympathy re the Afghans and Pakistanis):
ARE NOT THE AMERICAN CITIZENS TO BLAME AS WELL? WE HEAR MUCH ABOUT HOW WE MUSTN’T BE THE POLICEMEN OF THE WORLD. BUT DO WE NOT OWE FELLOW HUMAN BEINGS UNDER ATTACK BY FORCES THAT WISH TO DICTATE THEIR “DEATH, INCARCERATION & THE PURSUIT OF MISERY” SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE THAN A FAREWELL WISH?
Michael, let’s hear a little more, in depth, based on your informed, from-the-field, views.
MarkS Bvue
If the USA had a spine, we would seize all of them, dump them in Guantanamo with fresh copies of the Koran and new prayer mats, and seize all of the money that they have stolen from us that is now squirreled away in Dubai. We should repeat that process with the thousands of corrupt warlords with whom the spooks have made "alliances of convenience." And then they should be prosecuted for idiocy. If idiocy is not a crime, make it so.
We should napalm every inch of Afghanistan where poppies grow. We should return to do it season after season until the country grows something else. Opium funds the Taliban. A cancer of global magnitude, opium is killing thousands of young Russians, and it has subverted the international banking system for decades. Time to break the needle.
We should saturate Quetta with our assets and kill the Quetta Shura. Everybody knows that they are there. The Pakistanis pretend that they cannot be located, and due to our impotent protestations, nothing happens.
We should show no respect for Pakistani territorial integrity or for their hurt feelings or for their insecurities as a nation or for their oh-so-delicate sovereignty.
We should demolish the ability of Iran to wage war and to threaten its neighbors, and then turn our focus to our own Southern border. It goes without saying that the US needs to purge itself of its own corrupt government, with its racist, lying Attorney General, and the worst president in our history. He should go back to "community organizing" with his communist friends in Chicago.
May God Bless America. We need it more than ever.
I had been considering this since at least McChrystal's days but needed to be very sure of my position before saying it. There has been (and continues to be) progress on many fronts. General Petraeus came in and there was definite progress. Yet today we ARE already pulling out. France is about to pull back (looks like) and we already have downsized a force that was never sufficient to begin with. I first wrote in 12 dispatches in 2006 that we were losing in Afghanistan. Many people said I was crazy, of course. (That's what they normally say.) Since that time, I've seen a lot more, and studied much more, and talked with far more Afghans, US, British, etc., and our top leadership here and there. The general trajectory is plain to see and even the best case (that I can see) scenario in Afghanistan is not worth it to us. We will not lose the war as the Soviets did. Afghanistan is what it is. I wish the Afghans great success. I like the Afghan people and do not want to abandon them, and withdrawing our main force is not abandonment. We need to bring our people home. We can continue to work there, but we need to dramatically scale back. We are at the whims of Pakistan, and the northern routes, and a horse that doesn't drink much water.
The Afghans are grateful shuravi (Soviet people) who have built up new houses, schools, hospitals (United States did not build anything similar). Soviet army may thanks to stupid politics of Soviet government as a result we had a falling out with the Afghan government and have lost so many soldiers. But we do not consider ourselves to be lost!
And yes, we had more rights (then USA) to invade Afghanistan. Afghanistan at the time was a contiguous state with the Soviet Union (it has a common border with Tajikistan.) And the flow of heroin from this country in the late 1970s was very high. Moreover, in the northern provinces of Afghanistan gained power radical Islamic (terrorist) movements (not without the help of the CIA), which threatened the security of our southern repuplics.
This was a game ahead of the curve. If it had not entered it, we (the USSR), would include you (the U.S.). And this, if you remember, was a difficult time for us - Cold War apogee.
I respect the work that make your ordinary boys and girls in Afghanistan. I hate corrupt politicians. That corruption is often the reason that soldiers are dying. And the same shit is happening now in Russia, in Chechnya, where also there is a struggle against terrorism.
Sincerely yours, Alexander.
A local family has lost two of their three sons there and such heartache should end as soon as possible.
Thanks to you and to our fine armed forces personnel.
Fear of Muslims? Hardly. Your's is the fear of truth however. Your comment is pure projection.
The whole COIN strategy is a variation of the Pacification of Algiers, but that would have required us to (intend to) stay indefinitely and we never really bothered to do the things required to make a COIN strategy work (control the borders, have adequate troops in place to make it work, control the movements of the population till the bad guys could be ferretted out, etc).
I wonder if it's just mistaken hubris. "Other guys made it work, but we can make it work with less of everything!" or something.
ends up being a real possibility. And that threat is more costly and scary than the money we are
pouring down the drain hole with and lack of support for our troops from up high. But then, the
American public doesn’t understand, or want to understand, the long range threat - they live for
today, not for tomorrow (look at our deficit).
They won't be our allies then, will they?
Sadly, we have failed, and we will pay a heavy price.
My husbands been all over the middle east.SINCE 2004!!!! and guess what?? WE ARE LITERALLY PROTECTING THE TREATIED "RESOURCES" and thats our ONLY "military interest!" We are there to protect mega conglomerate interests in RARE EARTH AND OIL-PERIOD!!!! I can tell you personally and directly, my husband IS GRATEFUL he gets to help SOME...But he absolutely despises the arrogant whiney PRO WAR ignorance expressed so eagerly by folks like you -especially the armchair QBs! PLease explain to me why you think we should remain in this Lie of a Forever War! As a wife and mother with both son and husband "walking the talk" I can say THIS WAR WAS PERPETRATED ON LIES & PROFITS the few!! The criminal and despicable actions were initiated by Congress and the White House -and revenge obsessed American public! Who by the way can sit and claim they support but dont lift a finger! How many care packages have you sent ? PTSD suicide prevention? Nah! Didnt think so!
Shame that all of you who spew "lets kill em all!" arent mustered in and drafted! I wished someone would grow some gonads and institute a full on draft! THEN we'd see a different picture! NO BODY Most especially those frakking carpetbaggers in Congress would be spewing pro war sentiment then I'll wager!
My husband gets searched, patted down and dosed with excess radiation everytime he comes home by the TSA! He is treated like a criminal in his own country! Yet over there? They are still "TSA tyranny free" -so please tell me again- what and WHO are THE US soldiers fighting for? BRING THEM ALL HOME! NOW!! PLEASE! So we can fix our own VERY BROKEN house!
However, I am 100% appreciate your work and the dangers that you go through, sir.
We should have taken care of the Al-Qaeda Training camps,left Recon troops on the ground with Intel aircraft. Iraqi was a bigger mistake. Lets just rebuild every dam country we go to war with. No wonder the USA is in debt. Tell the Packys were are reducing their funding. Lives lost for what? The sXXXheads are coming in from every border to set-up Jidhist training camps here. By the way our asses in Washington don't care. Its been illegal aliens, drug cartels and now terrorists with help from the drug cartels.
We can leave the Stan but the enemy will not stop. Until Americans and the politicians that are making financial gain stop supporting Islam nothing will change. Americans will die.
was from India. One day a Indian Electrical Engineer came up to him and asked him this question, If the
19 Hi-jackers were Saudi and financed by the Wahabi Saudi and Osama was a Wahabi then why did you
people invade Afghanistan. I told him the Saudi are our friends,wink,wi nk
America has lost around 1,886 soldiers in Afghanistan - you lost nearly that many in 1 day on Omaha beach. You didn't quit then and you should not quit now. To be blunt you lose more people per month on US roads than from 10 years of Afghan war. Armies must fight to stay strong.
And America is not in decay. America will surprise with its strength in the future. America had what most countries don't - a young, growing population, plenty of land, water and natural resources, law and order and unequalled business skills.
But we need them here. Oil/energy has been the root cause of war since I. This time it's the dope trade with a country that has beaten its population like dogs whenever the occasion calls for it (?)
Mexico has been 'surging' in all respects e.g. drugs, illegal aliens, murder. Our Government is out of control with respect to managing these matters and all the laws associated with them. Our United States may not remain united at the rate they're going.
Putting our troops at the border and as many points of entry as feasible is a bill I'd foot.
I lived in Pakistan for a couple of years. They have never been an ally. Regarding Afghanistan, the Romans got their ass kicked. The Britts got their ass kicked. The Russians got their ass kicked. As far as I know, no country has gone from tribal to democracy without a dictator in between. We should have left there in 2002.
That would have been news to them. The Roman Empire never got anywhere near Afghanistan.
I think that basically the OP did not know what he was talking about in terms of the history of Afghanistan.
We gave the South Vietnamese 12 years, 58,000 lives, 300,000 wounded and hundreds of billions of dollars. But clowns like you say, "If only!"
If only we had spent another 10,000 lives ... another five years ... another $100 billion ... THEN we would have seen democracy and capitalism replace tyranny and corruption in South Vietnam!
Are you ok okiquit? Your numbers mean absolutely nothing to me and mean nothing with respect to freedom. You knew Vietnamese during the War did you? YOu slept in their villages, did you, as I did, protected by them? You spoke with Vietnamese citizens and found out why they fled North Vietnam did you, as I did? You spoke Vietnamese, as I did, did you? You taught English to the Vietnamese in Hue City in 1970, did you, as I did? You served with the 3rd Marines, 101st ABN and 1st of the 5th ID, as I did, did you? You are not a clown, okiquit, just an angry ignorant bitter man...I suppose you would not have gone to Korea for the South Koreans, would you?
You're gonna be missed, clowns.
sent here and there to sacrifice and die
yet there is no stated objective in terms of winning. The only way US troops should be used is as a last resort but saying that, when they are used go after the enemy, kill him, full steam ahead. If we commit troops, go in there with overwhelming force, and demolish whoever and whatever. Otherwise, don't send them
CHJohn is correct when he stated, “Our military has served above and beyond the call of duty. I cannot say the same of many of our spineless civilian politicians.”
So it's time to pull out and prepare for the very likely inevitable fight to the death that is staring at us in the face with extremist Muslims taking over nation after nation. Further waste of manpower and wealth at this time is unwise.
{^_^}
must be confident that the results are commensurate with the involvement.
They have a natural preference for involvements that are minor and for a
shorter terms. But they will sustain a major involvement over a short term,
or a minor involvement over a longer term, if convinced that the results are
demonstrably worth the effort. What pragmatic Americans cannot support is a
major involvement over a long term whose results can not be shown."
(LOST VICTORY by William Colby page 367)
Hugs and Blessings,
leyla
You think all will be well if you retreat home and pull the covers over your head?
Defeats come with a price. It will encourage your many enemies to attack you in future. Americans in future will die because of that.
Don't forget that Bin Laden was motivated in part by perceived US weakness - when you got hit, you retreated. Don't make the same mistake again.
We should continue to go after terrorists but we should not be getting sucked into occupations of indefinite length trying to change the culture of places were Islam has been entrenched for 100's of years. It is not our fault this failed, it is the fault of the people in those countries that just don't see things like we do.
You also owe it to the millions of Afghans who are depending on you not to let them down. You will lose future potential allies if you treat the Afghans like that.
We should have maintained a small footprint, but did not, therefore we lost the war!
This is madness!
The Taliban could never military defeat the US.
We all get the leaders we deserve. If the people of Iraq or Afghanistan truly wanted a democratic republic, they would have fought for it long ago. They are going to be oppressive places operating under Sharia Law for years to come and we have no business risking the lives of our men and women in the military to enable them to maintain that.
We should learn from this and just forget about invading and occupying Islamic nations. Should Iran need to be dealt with at some point, anything we do should never involve long-term occupation and nation building. It is all downside for us. There are too many hellholes around the world, we can clean them all up.
I know that reeks of someone who doesnt know what he is saying. But as a civililian I really hope the Militaries oblkigation is to make sure I dont look out my office window and see a big airplane coming at me. Yes. I still recall sept 11. I missed work. It interfered with my little life and I'd prefer no further scary interferences occur.
The Brits learned the hard way in 1843, when they were super power and the Russians in 1979-1988.
You seem to be forgetting that the British experience in Afghanistan was far from all disaster. Britain fought at least 3 times in Afghanistan and won two of these wars.
That does not mean that I advocate an endless engagement with vague, dubious goals. Indeed, I have a son in the Corps and I would not want to see him deployed there with the current mindset. However, if we are going to alter course--be it withdrawal or a new direction, we will need better political leadership than we have in place now.
Are you simply willing to abandon them to their deaths and suffering?
What do you think that future potential allies of the US will make of this?
The president was cornered into sending in the additional troops and is much more comfortable, like Clinton, with using stand off weapons to pin prick the enemy.
OBL is dead, as is Al-Awlaki, but fundamentally, Afghanistan has less hope today than in 2005 for sustained national unity.
The war has been underfunded and shoestringed from the outset, and despite the good intentions of our military and our people, the people in charge have never had the commitment to "win" this, whatever that may mean. Without this, the lives lost have been lost in vain and the thousands of wounded troopers, Marines, and Navy have left a part of themselves in a godforsaken, corrupt, 15th Century shithole.
I wish those Afghans who want to truly change their society well, but until they own their own mistakes and future, we cannot hand them anything and expect it to flourish whether a dictatorship, monarchy, or democracy.
Afghanistan is the ultimate coulda, woulda, should war.
The Taliban are now beginning to show that they are becoming disillusioned with the war. More and more are surrendering--a long with their leaders--after huge percentages of their fighters die every year or are lingering in captivity. At least before they could console themselves with waiting it out until NATO leaves. But now the rank-and-file (many of whom are in it only for the drug money) have to be convinced to carry on with a new war against 200,000 plus Afghan soldiers.
Maybe its true that Afghans have an endless tolerance for living in a state of war, but all of this reminds me of the Atlantic war in the early Spring of 1943 when shipping losses to U-boats were remaining stubbornly high and people were beginning to talk of losing the Atlantic. This just before all the elements of the anti-U-boat war came into play and by Summer of that same year, the U-boats had effectively been defeated.
We, just like the allies of the time, have little idea what the condition, morale and intra-politics of the enemy are.
There is far to little thought given here to how tough things must be for the Taliban. They may well be on their last legs.
Just think - they have no air power, no armoured vehicles, little artillery, no medical care if wounded.
We should be increasing our efforts, not decreasing them.
Who else to credit for this than the US-allied coalition? They should be extremely proud of this accomplishment alone. Bravo!
There are millions of Afghans depending on us not to leave and who will be killed or suffer terribly if we leave too early.
Let's not confuse that with being there for solely humanitarian purposes or to support a quasi-democrati cally elected government. Once the Afghans are strong enough, they will occupy and bleed our enemy in--most likely--a prolonged hot and cold war.
In that, US forces have been very successful. I do not believe that that role is yet over.
It is pretty tough for our Goldstars to hear this kind of talk.
He just hnded me back my iPad and said, "I've read enough."
I pretty much still feel like crap.
Michael
You should be making the argument as to why the US and its allies should stay in Afghanistan and should highlight those undermining the chances of victory, notably Obama.
But this is a disappointment that we choose. Why are we in Afghanistan? To decrease the likelihood the US experiences another 9/!1. How do we realistically do that? By setting up the conditions whereby the Taliban are kept busy spending their blood and treasure fighting a war that THEY can never win. We are probably within a year or two of pulling out and having the Afghans take over this war.
Remember, they live there. They are the ones who would have to live under the Taliban. And after spending so much time in Afghanistan, the US is just about poised to leave with an Afghanistan ready to--perhaps not control every square mile of its territory--but to maintain sway over the majority of the country while delegating the Taliban to a side show of bomb throwing rabble locked in eternal deadly struggle with their most bitter enemy: the majority of Afghans who remember the dower life and bloody rule under the Taliban. These Afghani people are not ready to roll over. Especially not after knowing first hand what the Taliban are all about.
In the end, those fighting for the zealots will inevitably see the futility of the cause, and the movement will slowly die out like the great majority of the world's insurgencies.
Have just a little more patience and don't fall into that "all or nothing, total victory or defeat" trap laid by our anti-American media. And once we're out, we can settle the score with Pakistan through political and economic means.
... or are you just lying for effect?
What planet are you from? I don't even know where to begin. Maybe do some reading outside your liberal bubble from time to time. After a few years, get back to me.
I have neither the time nor the interest in getting you up to speed with the opinion of half the country's population. Try Pajama's Media or Townhall. Even the Wall Street Journal could be quite enlightening on the subject.
I'm a liberal, and I agree with your thoughts on Afghanistan.
The Karzai Govt. may be corrupt, but it is going to be gone in 2014. Meanwhile, the Afghan National security forces have shown impressive growth both in terms of quality and quantity and are set to improve even further in the next couple of years. As long as they continue to receive proper funding from the international community, they'll likely give the Taliban and other extremists quite a spanking.
We should all thank Lt. Gen. Caldwell for the excellent two years of work that he did in setting up Nato Training Mission - Afghanistan. If we had done something akin to this from the onset, then we likely wouldn't even have anymore troops in Afghanistan.
A gradual withdrawal will give the young generation of Afghanistan a fighting chance, while an immediate withdrawal would be an unmitigated disaster.
Congratulations on a series of rational and high-quality-co ntent comments on this overall "time to leave Afghanistan" point asserted by Michael. I can understand Michael's position up to a point. But Michael's argument seems to be that without a stronger commitment by our current Administration - - continued loss of American life is too high a price to pay. While I concede that view has substance, it leaves me with the dissatisfaction of worrying that we're turning our backs not only on the Afghans, but also on ourselves - - not a good long term strategy. Perhaps a better answer: stick with the fight abroad - - but rally together at home around the idea that, at bottom line - - this IS our fight too.
http://www.visi.com/~tomcat/poetry/Grant.shtml
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/27/us-afghanistan-talks-idUSTRE80Q0IT20120127
This is a whole new attitude by the Taliban we haven't seen before. Note the Taliban negotiator saying we wouldn't have to worry about lower lever Taliban foot soldiers ready to call it quits if their leaders tell them to.
This can't really surprise us too much. We've been killing so many thousands of them for so many years, they would truely have to be non-human not to eventually blink. We've had intercepted messages between Taliban tactical leadership indicating they are exhausted and that so many of their fighters are now either dead, captured or either physically or emotionally crippled.
I never could come to a conclusion as to whether this sort of thing was anecdotal or not, but now its beginning to look like it may have been an accurate representation.
The summer or '43 might just be right around the corner after all.
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