01 August 2008

More than two years ago, I reported from the ground that we were losing the war in Afghanistan, a conclusion that was met with widespread ridicule and criticism.  Now, more than two years after those reports, the situation there has only gotten worse.

Our next President will have to make some painful decisions regarding Afghanistan.  If those decisions are unwise, we will lose the Afghan front of this war.

On the upside, however, our military has proven that it can take a war that looks unwinnable and turn it around.  During those very dark days in 2006 and early 2007, the Iraq war seemed lost to many "experts."  Many "experts" were ready to cut and run.  But we won in Iraq.  Against heavy odds.  Our very experienced and capable military -- who truly rescued victory from the jaws of defeat in Iraq -- are my only hopes for Afghanistan.

Michael

Commentary: A top general says more troops aren't the answer in Afghanistan 

By Joseph L. Galloway

McClatchy Newspapers

There's military slang that seemingly applies to the situation on the ground in Afghanistan today. The operative acronym is FUBAR - Fouled Up Beyond All Recognition. That first letter doesn't really stand for "Fouled," and the R sometimes stands for Repair.

One of the sharper military analysts I know has just returned from a tour of that sorrowful nation, which has been at war continuously since the Soviet Army invaded it in late 1979.

Gen. Barry McCaffrey, who retired from the U.S. Army with four stars and a chest full of combat medals including two Distinguished Service Crosses, says we can't shoot our way out of Afghanistan, and the two or three or more American combat brigades proposed by the two putative nominees for president are irrelevant.

McCaffrey predicts that 2009 will be the year of decision as the Taliban and a greatly enhanced presence of "foreign fighters" try to sever roads and halt road construction to strangle and isolate the capital, Kabul and attack NATO units that are hamstrung by restrictions and rules of engagement dictated by their home governments.

More ominously, the general says, we can expect a Taliban drive to erase Afghanistan's border with Pakistan in the wild frontier provinces of Pakistan that have provided sanctuary for Taliban and al Qaida leaders and fighters since Osama bin Laden escaped there in 2001.

The general says that despite the two presidential candidates' sound bites, a few more combat brigades from "our rapidly unraveling Army" won't make much difference in Afghanistan.

Military means, he writes, won't be enough to counter terror created by resurgent Taliban forces; we can't win with a war of attrition; and the economic and political support from the international community is inadequate.

"This is a struggle for the hearts of the people, and good governance, and the creation of Afghan security forces," McCaffrey writes. He says the main theater of war is in frontier regions pf Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the combatants are tribes, religious groups, criminals and drug lords.

It'll take a quarter-century of nation-building, road and bridge building, the building of a better-trained and better-armed Afghan National Police and National Army and the eradication of a huge opium farming industry to achieve a good outcome in Afghanistan, McCaffrey wrote in his report to leaders at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

We can't afford to fail in Afghanistan, the general says, but he doesn't address the question of whether we can afford to succeed there, either.

McCaffrey writes that the situation in Afghanistan is dire, and is going to get a lot worse in the 24 months ahead. The country is in abject misery - 68 percent of the population has never known peace; average life expectancy is 44 years; maternal mortality is the second-highest in the world; terrorist violence and attacks are up 34 percent this year; 2.8 million Afghans are refugees in their own country; unemployment is 40 percent and rising; some 41 percent of the population lives in extreme poverty; the only agricultural success story is a $4 billion opium crop producing a huge amount of heroin, and the government at province and district level is largely dysfunctional and corrupt.

The battle will only be won, McCaffrey says, when there's a real Afghan police presence in all of the country's 34 provinces and 398 districts; when the Afghan National Army is expanded from 80,000 troops today to 200,000 troops; when we deploy five U.S. combat engineer battalions with a brigade of Army Stryker forces for security to begin a five-year road building program that also trains Afghan Army engineer units and employs Afghan contractors and workers.

Without NATO, we're lost in Afghanistan, he writes. But NATO's level of commitment and engagement in Afghanistan is woefully inadequate - European troops are restricted by their political leaders at home, risk-averse in a dangerous environment and almost totally unequipped with the tools needed for an effective counter-insurgency campaign - helicopters, intelligence, logistics, engineers, civil affairs and special operations units, precision munitions, medical support and cash to prime local economic efforts.

As for neighboring Pakistan and bellicose American threats to cross the border and mount more attacks on insurgents there, McCaffrey says this would be a "political disaster" that would imperil any Pakistan support for our campaign and likely result in Pakistan's weak civilian government shutting off American supply routes into Afghanistan.

Our efforts in Afghanistan, inadequate though they may be, now cost $34 billion each year and clearly this would have to be substantially increased if the fixes McCaffrey prescribes are to be implemented.

As good as the American ground troops operating in Afghanistan are - many are on their third or fourth combat deployments there or in Iraq - McCaffrey says our military is under-resourced and too small for the national strategy we've been pursuing.

The general concludes his report by writing: "This is a generational war to build an Afghan state and prevent the creation of a lawless, extremist region which will host and sustain enduring threats to the vital national security interests of the United States and our key allies."

This ought to be a wake-up call for all Americans, and for John McCain and Barack Obama. Now there's a sound bite for them.

Copies of my new book Moment of Truth in Iraq are in distribution, but this is the only place to get signed copies. Moment of Truth is available on Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.com. It is also available in Barnes & Noble and other major bookstores. Download this handout to give to your military exchange, local bookstore or library so that they may order the book.

Please support this mission by buying Moment of Truth today, or by making a direct contribution. Without your support, the mission will end. Thank you for helping me tell the full story of the struggle for Iraq.

Please click here to download or view the complete After Action Report from General [ret.] Barry McCaffrey.

Copies of my new book Moment of Truth in Iraq are in distribution, but this is the only place to get signed copies. Moment of Truth is available on Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.com. It is also available in Barnes & Noble and other major bookstores. Download this handout to give to your military exchange, local bookstore or library so that they may order the book.

Please support this mission by buying Moment of Truth today, or by making a direct contribution. Without your support, the mission will end. Thank you for helping me tell the full story of the struggle for Iraq.

24 July 2008

I am currently in Nepal trekking in the Himalaya for a month or two, getting in shape for Afghanistan. The monsoon rains leave the trails mostly empty, and my lower legs covered with leeches. Rubbing salt and tobacco can help, but the streams and rains simply wash that away after a short time, and so by the end of the day, my socks are often soaked with blood. When I rinse the socks, the water is crimson with blood. But the leeches don't hurt or cause illness.

Otherwise, the Maoists in Nepal are actually taking a more responsible approach than most folks might have expected. I've got three porters to carry my books and camera gear. They are all Maoists, so there are many interesting conversations at night. I told them that I have been to many communist countries and find the communist philosophy bankrupt. I don't like it at all. They laugh at me because they know that America is a friend of the Nepali people. But I have been to Nepal on perhaps five or six occasions, and it's true that all that the Maoists wanted was justice, schools, roads, clinics, and so forth. Thankfully, this war has ended, yet also it was a war that never needed to happen if the people had been treated with respect.

I just went eight days with no Internet, and had to divert my course, walking four days to find an Internet connection in a small village. My inbox contained complaints about the price of an E-book edition of Moment of Truth in Iraq on Amazon.com. I did not know there was an E-Book version until readers informed me. The pricing of this "Kindle" edition is completely out of the publisher's hands and Amazon has, for some reason unknown to me, set the price very high.

While I'm in this small Nepali village today, I'll do interviews on various radio programs, such as G. Gordon Liddy, Dennis Miller, Bill Bennett, Mancow, Kirby & Co., and Vicki McKenna. If you hear one of the interviews, there might be some strange sounds in the background. The telephone I'll be using is in a kitchen, where the locals will be talking Nepali or some other language, and cooking my dinner during the interviews!

Many people are coming to realize that the war in Iraq is over. The situation is still violent, but the fast progress is undeniable. The Iraqi government is inept, yet is largely seen as legitimate. The Iraqi government has dramas, but we need look no further than to our friends in Thailand or South Korea or India to see even greater governmental dramas. I remember living in Poland when they traded communism for democracy and capitalism. Unemployment, inflation and economic woes were as bad (perhaps even worse) than in Iraq. Poland is one of America's closest allies and has been an important partner in Iraq. Poland knows that Iraq can make it, although the war has been divisive in Poland, too.

In the next month or so, I might ask the American or British military if they will take me back in Iraq after this trek in Nepal, but there are many long days ahead for me in Afghanistan, and I imagine much of that will be beyond the walls of any military base. Now is time to study the war ahead, and to prepare for the long path ahead.

Your correspondent,

Michael

14 July 2008

The war continues to abate in Iraq. Violence is still present, but, of course, Iraq was a relatively violent place long before Coalition forces moved in. I would go so far as to say that barring any major and unexpected developments (like an Israeli air strike on Iran and the retaliations that would follow), a fair-minded person could say with reasonable certainty that the war has ended. A new and better nation is growing legs. What's left is messy politics that likely will be punctuated by low-level violence and the occasional spectacular attack. Yet, the will of the Iraqi people has changed, and the Iraqi military has dramatically improved, so those spectacular attacks are diminishing along with the regular violence. Now it's time to rebuild the country, and create a pluralistic, stable and peaceful Iraq. That will be long, hard work. But by my estimation, the Iraq War is over. We won. Which means the Iraqi people won.

I wish I could say the same for Afghanistan. But that war we clearly are losing: I am preparing to go there and see the situation for myself. My friends and contacts who have a good understanding of Afghanistan are, to a man, pessimistic about the current situation. Interestingly, however, every one of them believes that Afghanistan can be turned into a success. They all say we need to change our approach, but in the long-term Afghanistan can stand on its own. The sources range from four-stars to civilians from the United States, Great Britain and other places. A couple years ago, some of these sources believed that defeat was imminent in Iraq. They were nearly right about Iraq, although some of them knew far less about Iraq than they do about Afghanistan. But it's clear that hard days are ahead in Afghanistan. We just lost nine of our soldiers in a single firefight, where the enemy entered a base and nearly overran it.

The news from Afghanistan is reason for pessimism. For some more optimistic news, please look at these statistics from Iraq, and remember that if we could turn things around in that country, we might be able to do the same in Afghanistan.

Copies of my new book Moment of Truth in Iraq are in distribution, but this is the only place to get signed copies. Moment of Truth is available on Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.com. It is also available in Barnes & Noble and other major bookstores. Download this handout to give to your military exchange, local bookstore or library so that they may order the book.

Please support this mission by buying Moment of Truth today, or by making a direct contribution. Without your support, the mission will end. Thank you for helping me tell the full story of the struggle for Iraq.

14 July 2008

This from Command Sergeant Major Ken Preston, Command Sergeant Major of the Army. Here is a great opportunity. Please disseminate this to all veterans.

Very Respectfully,

Michael

In this edition of my leader book notes I ask for your support to the National Museum of the U.S Army. The museum is a tribute to the service and sacrifice of our Soldiers since 1775. It is a national landmark for the Army’s history and heritage.

No history of our Nation is complete without telling the incredible story of the Army and the American Soldier. Our Country’s heritage is one of freedom, an inalienable right that was not given to our people, but won with great effort. Nor is our freedom for the future a guarantee, hence the Army’s fight for freedom must be told to the American people and passed to future generations. The National Museum of the U.S. Army will tell that story. It serves as an educational experience to engage the American public and as an inspiration to the Soldiers of today. Just as important, the Museum will preserve, study and interpret more than 750,000 artifacts and works of art dating back to the days of the Continental Army to present day. The vast majority of these rare and priceless artifacts have never been seen by the American people.

The National Museum established a Registry of the American Soldier to provide an opportunity for anyone who served in the Army to have his or her name and service history placed on record at the Museum. If you served, you owe it to the American people to show your service in the registry. If you have a family member who served in the Army, living or deceased, you can register their name and service history. The Registry will remain on permanent public display at the Museum and on the internet for those who can not visit in person.

The Army will build the Museum and visitors’ center, complete with interactive exhibits and other exciting displays at Fort Belvoir, Virginia. The museum’s campus will feature a memorial garden, parade ground, a venue for ceremonies, reenactments, lectures and educational programs.

The Museum Foundation currently has financial support from over 60,000 individuals, corporations and foundations. They have received supporting resolutions from the VFW, American Legion and the Association of the U.S. Army.

I am asking your support to encourage your Soldiers to register their profile with the museum. Your support is essential to the success of this valuable Museum project. I have attached a copy of an example profile currently featured with the Museum. Visit the Museum’s web site to register.

We owe it to the American people to tell the Army and Soldiers’ story. Thanks for all that you do for our Soldiers and for America’s Army. Army Strong!

13 July 2008

The news came to me in Nepal that Tony Snow had died. The words came with a jolt followed by sorrow. The best that can be said about any American is that he died in service to the people of the United States of America, and to our friends beyond our borders. Tony Snow did just that. Though Tony must have been in pain, his correspondence to me was always upbeat and positive and wise. The President chose well with Tony. He will be missed, but his service will be felt. Tony Snow was a Great American, whose spirit is stronger now than ever before.

“It had become a place of darkness. But there was in it one river especially, a mighty big river, that you could see on the map, resembling an immense snake uncoiled, with its head in the sea, its body curving at rest afar over a vast country, and its tail lost in the depths of the land.”

Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness

Journey Into Darkness

July 2008

There were informers everywhere. In the hotels, in the restaurants, near the docks and on the river. And so, in addition to the natural dangers of the journey, there were the dangers of the military junta.

The team would consist of eight people: seven Burmese and one American. I was supposed to be part of the team, but was stuck in Thailand after having been refused a visa.

At the arranged time, on 10 June, the first coded message pinged out from the American, whom I will call Charlie Marlow. "Charlie" was in Yangon when he sent the message to "Translator", who contacted "Manager", who contacted "Cook", as well as the four other crew members. At about 10:30 p.m., all had assembled in the darkness on the banks of the Irrawaddy River. The Burmese Navy was patrolling the Irrawaddy further downstream, and a number of foreign journalists had been recently deported after broadcasting embarrassing stories from the delta. There were stern warnings to the locals not to facilitate entry or movement of foreigners to the region. There was talk that the military had stationed at least one soldier in nearly every village to report on any contact with outsiders.

The engine on the small boat was loud; it hammered away in the dark. For the next six nights the engine would provide the background music for uneasy slumber where in some places only the ghosts of the victims accompanied these travelers. The riverboats in southeast Asia are legendary for the vermin residing in their cracks and holds. At night the roaches, spiders, and sometimes even snakes, crawl out of their hiding spaces, sometimes causing panic to uninitiated travelers. Charlie had been doing business in forlorn places like this for almost twenty years, and had developed a healthy fear and respect for tropical insects and rodents, so he had the boat fumigated before the journey.

Approaching government or Navy checkpoints, Charlie would hide beneath the tarp, but nobody was manning the checkpoints, and the boat passed without incident downriver, pulled by a current which originated far to the north, conveying the occupants toward an uncertain fate. By sunrise they had traveled dozens of miles farther than the military rulers permitted foreigners to go unescorted. The Cook, a superstitious Catholic of Tamil Indian descent, made breakfast, and then at about 8 a.m., the team had their first landing at a village on the eastern edge of the disaster zone.

The Manager filed this after-action report:

We left Yangon on the 10th of June at 10:30 pm. We arrived at Alpha village at 7:45 a.m. At 8 am we held a meeting at Alpha monastery.

After a long discussion which took about 3 hours, we came to an agreement on the following point.

(1) Rice seeds are desperately needed so, we promised to donate then 40 bags of seeds. Each bag full of seeds cost 10000.00 Kyats.

(2) School was completely destroyed students had nowhere to attend school. The solution-to convert the monastery into a make-shift school after making some repair work. I think around about $700 US.

(3) Small tractor needed. We didn’t promise to give on as our budget is limited.

The villagers had been very happy to see help coming, and to see an American delivering aid from his own pocket. And so they gave the visitors a mess of crabs, as well as a humble and heartfelt farewell, and the team boated to the next village, another 3 hours south.

The Manager wrote:

In the second village called "Bravo" village. We held a meeting round about 2 hours on the boat with monk leader "Zulu" and 2 head men. They needed fishing boats.

(1) We’ll give them 3 boats on lucky draw system to those fishermen whose boats were damaged beyond repair. (Boat price round about $500 US)

(2) To give 500000.00 Kyats for repairing the damaged monastery.

Note: 30.5.2008 private donation 5 small tractors.

And so going into the second night, the boat had traveled about 107 miles in the first 24 hours, and the Cook and been cooking along the way.

That night, he boiled the crabs, which the Burmese crew did not eat, but Charlie and the others enjoyed. It reminded Charlie of his childhood on the east coast of the United States, where children gathered crabs from the estuaries. Charlie waxed nostalgic with the crew, all the while being pulled by forces both man-made and natural to the southwest, under the melancholy, hazy eye of a half-moon, in which no sign of things to come could be ascertained.

On 11 June, the team stopped at several villages. The locals were friendly and welcoming. Despite the reports, in most of the villages there were no soldiers. In the villages where there had been a soldier, Charlie stayed hidden on the boat. In most villages the radios had either been destroyed during the massive tidal surge or their batteries were dead, but the people knew that the United States Navy had been waiting with ships and helicopters. Charlie could only imagine the images in these villagers’ minds of giant men with giant machines, poised just beyond the nautical horizon, who could deliver them from the repressive grip of a decaying regime in the blink of an eye. To a man, the villagers very much wanted to see the United States come in to help, and were disappointed to learn that the American Navy had sailed away after the Myanmar government did not allow them to deliver aid, which was pre-positioned in the holds of ships in the thousands of tons, with twenty-two helicopters on board the flotilla ready to act. But American and other international assistance were turned away by the junta.